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Greenhouse Gases (GHG)
 Inventory

Egypt’s total GHG emissions in 1990 equaled 116,918 gigagrams (Gg) of carbon dioxide (C02) equivalent, as calculated using the 1995 Global Warming Potential (GWP) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). With total GHG sinks in the land use sector estimated at 9,900 Gg of C02 equivalent, the net emissions are equal to 107,018 Gg of C02 equivalent. The following pie chart shows the percentage share of emissions of each of the greenhouse gases in Egypt.

GHG Emissions
Excluding Land-Use Changes and Forestry
*IPCC Second Assessment Report of Working Group I, 1995

The relative contributions of sources of greenhouse gases in total emissions are presented in the following bar chart, indicating that the energy sector is the main source of GHG emissions. Egypt is 92% dependent on fossil fuels (oil and natural gas). The agricultural sector is the second largest GHG source in the form of methane from rice cultivation, followed by industrial emissions of C02 from the steel and cement industries. The chart displays Egypt’s emissions of GHG by sector in 1990.

Contribution of GHG by Sector
Contribution of GHG by Sector (1990/1991)
 Projections

The development of Egypt’s GHG projections was designed to match the country’s four five-years plans launched and executed by the Government of Egypt (GOE) starting in 1997 and ending in 2017. This is based mainly on the projection of energy consumption for Egypt, and the GHG emission factors developed by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Future energy demand by sector during the period (1990/91-2016/17) has been estimated using the Energy and Power Evaluation Program (ENPEP). This is based on the growth rates of total and sector-specific Gross Domestic Product (GDP), population, fuel prices, and the income and elasticity of the price totals.

Total CO2 emissions is expected to increase from nearly 75 million tons in 1990/91 to about 261 million tons in 2016/17, with an average annual growth rate of 4.9%. The industry sector is expected to be the major contributor to CO2 emissions in 2016/17 with a share of about 49%, followed by the electricity sector at 29%, and the transportation sector contributing approximately 14%. Based on a technology assessment study that was undertaken within the support for a national action plan, three GHG mitigation scenarios were developed; “Fuel Substitution”, “Renewable Energy”, and “Energy Efficiency”. Energy savings for the three scenarios are expected to reach about 208 peta joules (PJ) by 2016/17, resulting in reduction in CO2 emissions of 18.4 million tons.

Projections for Energy Consumption
Projections for Energy Consumption & Reduction in peta joules
Resulting from the 3 Scenarios

A baseline scenario without mitigation measures has been developed for evaluating the projected CO2 emissions during the study period. Energy prices and income elasticity, previously developed at the Organization for Energy Conservation and Planning (OECP), have also been used to project future levels of energy demand.

Projections Reduction in CO2